May 9, 2002
We're running out of land we're told and that's why home prices are so
high in San Diego. Well you might think so till you discover the government has
placed over 172,000 underdeveloped acres in the Multiple Species Conservation
Plan off limits to home construction. While this is another factor that
dramatically increases the price of homes, we're not even close to running out
of land. In reality, every floor of an apartment or condominium project adds to
the effective supply of land. By simply zoning more land for single family and
multi-family development you increase both the supply of land and hence,
housing. Older communities in San Diego have many obsolete 70-80 year old homes.
If two homes were allowed to be built where one now exists, you in effect double
the supply of land. Build 10 condominiums and well -- you get the point. San
Diego is one of the ten largest cities in the U.S. in square miles, so there is
no physical shortage of land, only a "political shortage" of land.
In 1973 the median priced home in San Diego was actually less than the national
median. With the advent of local politicians determining when and where housing
would be built, prices have skyrocketed. But this is the way it is throughout
most of the rest of the world, which has always had more land use restrictions
than America. Socialist countries are quite familiar with the phenomenon of
shortages in their government-planned economies. This is why when you travel to
Western Europe you see housing so expensive that two and three generations still
live together under one roof. SANDAG reports the spread of this European disease
to San Diego as more and more people double up.
Between 1990 and 2000 the increase in persons per household, as reported by SANDAG,
"is equivalent to adding four new cities the size of Poway to the region". This is an awesome figure. When you say how will people live if
prices and rents keep skyrocketing, this is how, just like in Europe. Affordable
housing in San Diego has come to mean both related and unrelated people sharing
apartments and homes. This of course, defeats the best-laid plans of the Sierra
Club, no-growthers, slow-growthers, NIMBYS, so-called environmentalists, and
other misanthropes. Prevent developers from building homes so there'll be fewer
cars on the freeway and you simply wind up with more people and more cars per
household, or commutes from neighboring counties and still will have more cars
on the freeways. The free market will find a way!
In October of 1975 I published, COMING SOON--THE $100,000--1200 Sq. Ft. TRACT
HOUSE
At the time the average price of a home in San Diego was $42,825. I wrote,
"The latest phased growth plan, presented to the City Council October 16th, is
to severely restrict development over the next 18 to 20 years. Included in the
plan is the recommendation for a one-year moratorium on new construction." Low
and behold, by 1981 prices more than doubled to $104,500 or 57% more than the
median priced house in the U.S. It took just 8 years of government planning to
reach a 57% premium and today we see planning in San Diego adds slightly more
than 100% to the national median priced home.
To understand how much government adds to the cost of housing see:
Property and Freedom, by Bernard Siegan; The Advisory Commission on
Regulatory Barriers to Affordable Housing, by Anthony Downs; Comment on
Anthony Down's Regulatory Barriers to Affordable Housing, by William Fischel;
and Bernard Frieden's, The Environment Hustle.
Fred Schnaubelt, City Councilman 1977-81, 2728 Adams Ave., S.D. 92116
(619) 280-2082
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